The consensus of market followers is best described by surveys done by organisations such as Bloomberg and Reuters, whom survey a small number of esteemed economists, and ask them what their expectation of an event will be. Once a consensus view is established for the event of interest, it is important to know what level of deviation (i.e. the difference between the actual release number and the consensus number) will likely cause the valuation of the market to shift. When events occur, sometimes a revision will occur of a previous release, usually the month before. It can impact the market if the revision is large, so can magnify the impact of the current release, neutralise it, or outweight it. Our secondary investment approach in a nutshell is that every major planned economic or financial event has a consensus expectation determined by economists ... if the actual release figure is different from the consensus by a minimum deviation, the market is surprised and will react to the release sometimes immediately, but in many cases over a period of time (15 mins to 2 hours). Based on historical data, we can predict that a particular deviation will trigger a minimum amount of valuation shift. We do not form an opinion before the event - we will wait for the event to come out, and then take a position.
| Event |
USD |
CAD |
GBP |
AUD |
NZD |
EUR |
CHF |
| GDP |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
|
| CPI |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
|
| Interest Rate |
0.25% |
0.25% |
0.25% |
0.25% |
0.25% |
0.25% |
0.25% |
| Central Bank |
|
|
2 votes |
|
|
|
|
| PMI/ ISM Manufacturing |
2.5 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
|
|
|
|
| PMI/ ISM Non-Manufacturing |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
|
|
|
|
| Housing (New Sales) |
70k |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Housing (Existing Sales) |
400k |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Trade Balance |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Retail Sales |
0.5% |
0.5% |
0.5% |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
|
| PPI |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Employment/ NFP |
70k |
30k |
|
30k |
|
|
|
| ADP NFP |
50k |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Always remember that trading foreign exchange on margin carries a HIGH LEVEL OF RISK, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
| 
